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Contracting the Coronavirus

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Contracting the Coronavirus

Postby tailwaters » March 12th, 2020, 8:43 am

It seems like everyone is trying to avoid the corona virus but I was thinking about taking the opposites approach. Tying to contract it. I know a lot of folks will think this isn’t the wisest choice but I see several advantages to doing so. First I am 45, in relatively good health and have a very remote chance of dying from it. Symptoms don’t show up for after 5-7 days so most people don’t know they have even contracted it for a period of time. In turn they are spreading it to loved ones without knowledge. I would be horrified to find out I had given it to my 97 year old grandmother! By knowing ahead of time this can be avoided. It is also something you can plan for vs contracting at an inconvenient time. If medical help is required hospitals will probable be less backed up now vs a couple months down the road. By no means am I stressing about it now but having it out of the way does lift the burden of trying to avoid it. As a bonus I can take advantage of some deeply discounted travel too. Anyways, just something I am pondering. If you guys know of anyone that has contracted it and needs a huge, let me know :D
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Re: Contracting the Coronavirus

Postby Salty Gator » March 12th, 2020, 8:59 am

Make sure you do that after we fish this weekend
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Re: Contracting the Coronavirus

Postby FishWithChris » March 12th, 2020, 9:43 am

I had a tickle in my throat this morning, worn out, back sore, cough over the last 12 hours, its been rough.

but then I remembered I spent time in the trees cutting them back and its just allergies. :lol: :lol:


I can't wait for this to blow over. Does anyone have the demographic stats of those that have not survived Covid-19? I know the majority are of elder age and already at risk for health complications... I drink too much whiskey and Florida's Natural OJ (not together) for anything to stick I think
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Re: Contracting the Coronavirus

Postby procraftwes » March 12th, 2020, 9:43 am

Symptoms show up up to 14 days later, healthy 18 year olds have still been hospitalized, one of the first americans to die was 38 and healthy(going off memory), but most importantly you'll have the stigma of being infected and 3 week self quarantine is only if you're suspected. If you're confirmed infected expect to be rounded up by the CDC by will or by force(they have sweeping authority).

None of that sounds pleasant.
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Re: Contracting the Coronavirus

Postby SHOWBOAT » March 12th, 2020, 10:20 am

I'm not laughing as much as you guys are. Between getting employees back to the States, updating vendors/customers with Business Continuity Plans, etc this is turning into a fairly significant business interruption. That is the business side and doesn't address not being able to travel a mere 4 hours to see the best FSU basketball team ever during March Madness.

However, none of the foregoing is as an important as the health of our elderly and children. Even if mortality rates aren't high, it appears we still don't know the long term impacts that infections can have one's lungs, etc. This is one of those situations where the inconvenience of self-quarantining is probably warranted from my perspective. Maybe I'm just that protective "new" parent.
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Re: Contracting the Coronavirus

Postby tailwaters » March 12th, 2020, 10:53 am

(All direct from WHO report)

People with COVID-19 generally develop signs and symptoms, including mild respiratory symptoms and fever, on an average of 5-6 days after infection (mean incubation period 5-6 days, range 1-14 days). As of 20 February 2020 and based on 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases [in China], typical signs and symptoms include:

Fever (87.9%)
Dry cough (67.7%)
Fatigue (38.1%)
Sputum production (33.4%) (a mixture of saliva and mucus coughed up from the respiratory tract)
Shortness of breath (18.6%)
Sore throat (13.9%)
Headache (13.6%)
Joint pain (14.8%)
Chills (11.4%)
Nausea or vomiting (5.0%)
Nasal congestion (4.8%)
Diarrhea (3.7%)
Hemoptysis (0.9%) (coughing up of blood or blood-stained mucus from the bronchi, larynx, trachea, or lungs)
Conjunctival congestion (0.8%)

Comorbidities:

Individuals at highest risk for severe disease and death include those who meet any of the following conditions:
People 60 years of age and older
Diabetes
Hypertension
Cardiovascular disease
Chronic respiratory disease
Heart, lung or kidney disease
Cancer
Those with weakened immune systems
People with weakened respiratory system due to smoking/vaping
If you fall into any of the above categories, the CDC says "it is especially important for you to take actions to reduce your risk of exposure"
Source: WHO report / CDC
What does it mean for you if you fall into this bracket? A CDC guide titled People at Higher Risk for COVID-19 Complications explains.
Mortality rate:
Age % of population % of infected Fatality
0-9 12.0% 0.9% 0 as of now
10-19 11.6% 1.2% 0.1%
20-29 13.5% 8.1% 0.2%
30-39 15.6% 17.0% 0.2%
40-49 15.6% 19.2% 0.4%
50-59 15.0% 22.4% 1.3%
60-69 10.4% 19.2% 3.6%
70-79 4.7% 8.8% 8.0%
80+ 1.8% 3.2% 14.8%
Disease in children appears to be relatively rare and mild with approximately 2.4% of the total reported cases reported amongst individuals aged under 19 years. A very small proportion of those aged under 19 years have developed severe (2.5%) or critical disease (0.2%).
Source: WHO report
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Re: Contracting the Coronavirus

Postby procraftwes » March 12th, 2020, 11:10 am

tailwaters wrote:(All direct from WHO report)

People with COVID-19 generally develop signs and symptoms, including mild respiratory symptoms and fever, on an average of 5-6 days after infection (mean incubation period 5-6 days, range 1-14 days). As of 20 February 2020 and based on 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases [in China], typical signs and symptoms include:

Fever (87.9%)
Dry cough (67.7%)
Fatigue (38.1%)
Sputum production (33.4%) (a mixture of saliva and mucus coughed up from the respiratory tract)
Shortness of breath (18.6%)
Sore throat (13.9%)
Headache (13.6%)
Joint pain (14.8%)
Chills (11.4%)
Nausea or vomiting (5.0%)
Nasal congestion (4.8%)
Diarrhea (3.7%)
Hemoptysis (0.9%) (coughing up of blood or blood-stained mucus from the bronchi, larynx, trachea, or lungs)
Conjunctival congestion (0.8%)

Comorbidities:

Individuals at highest risk for severe disease and death include those who meet any of the following conditions:
People 60 years of age and older
Diabetes
Hypertension
Cardiovascular disease
Chronic respiratory disease
Heart, lung or kidney disease
Cancer
Those with weakened immune systems
People with weakened respiratory system due to smoking/vaping
If you fall into any of the above categories, the CDC says "it is especially important for you to take actions to reduce your risk of exposure"
Source: WHO report / CDC
What does it mean for you if you fall into this bracket? A CDC guide titled People at Higher Risk for COVID-19 Complications explains.
Mortality rate:
Age % of population % of infected Fatality
0-9 12.0% 0.9% 0 as of now
10-19 11.6% 1.2% 0.1%
20-29 13.5% 8.1% 0.2%
30-39 15.6% 17.0% 0.2%
40-49 15.6% 19.2% 0.4%
50-59 15.0% 22.4% 1.3%
60-69 10.4% 19.2% 3.6%
70-79 4.7% 8.8% 8.0%
80+ 1.8% 3.2% 14.8%
Disease in children appears to be relatively rare and mild with approximately 2.4% of the total reported cases reported amongst individuals aged under 19 years. A very small proportion of those aged under 19 years have developed severe (2.5%) or critical disease (0.2%).
Source: WHO report


You'll live and i'm only 35 so I'd live too. I will be rounded up by the CDC, be on the news, 15% chance of be hospitalized, and face a forced 30+ day quarantine. I'll pass.

I think alot of people are using self quarantine reports based on suspected cases rather than confirmed cases. I watched an interview of a guy who 33 days into forced quarantine with mild symptoms is still testing positive.
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Re: Contracting the Coronavirus

Postby CSMarine » March 12th, 2020, 11:42 am

I woke up this morning tired, sore all over, felt like I just spent two days fighting big Red fish.
Oh yeah, that's right. I did.
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Re: Contracting the Coronavirus

Postby FishWithChris » March 12th, 2020, 12:25 pm

[quote="SHOWBOAT"]I'm not laughing as much as you guys are. Between getting employees back to the States, updating vendors/customers with Business Continuity Plans, etc this is turning into a fairly significant business interruption. That is the business side... /quote]

Man, you're not lying there. The client panic has been an absolute mess to deal with and recreating BCP and reviewing contractual language with customers has gotten tiresome; but just like us, they have customers to support and protect as well. I'm thankful that 75% of my business is digital, but the other 25% that is output from physical plants is causing most of the stress. Thankfully we have multiple locations throughout the US for us to redirect to; but still very much a focused concern.


When we talk about self-quarantine, and increasing #Social_Distancing, at what point does that clock start over? 2 weeks starting today? 2 weeks again after 1 week? C-19 continues to spread and still a lot of cases yet to be identified, even locally, that could completely flip everyone's world upside down in a matter of hours.

The media certainly is not helping here.
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Re: Contracting the Coronavirus

Postby big bend gyrene » March 12th, 2020, 1:33 pm

SHOWBOAT wrote:However, none of the foregoing is as an important as the health of our elderly and children. Even if mortality rates aren't high, it appears we still don't know the long term impacts that infections can have one's lungs, etc. This is one of those situations where the inconvenience of self-quarantining is probably warranted from my perspective. Maybe I'm just that protective "new" parent.

Children blessedly have been pretty much COMPLETELY untouched by it thus far - under age 10 to the tune of 0.00%. That could change, but it would require the virus to undergo mutation.

Few additional points for general consideration... first it is NOT nearly the equivalent of the 1918 Spanish Flu, which was far more of a horror in killing LOADS of pediatric patients AS WELL AS men and women between the prime productive years of 20 and 40.

1918 Flu Comparison.jpg

So to the point of it statistically killing a higher percentage of the elderly than did the Spanish Flu... why might that be? Thank modern medicine for keeping many of us over the age of 50 with heart disease, diabetes, and cancer alive that would NOT have lasted long in 1918 without modern medical treatment. LOTS of older folks with immuno-suppression issues, and thus it's NOT really surprising that they get walloped by secondary diseases like COVID 19 AND the flu.

Next - what truly is the mortality rate? Yes, it's being reported as high as 3 to 4% in some outlets but it is EXTREMELY likely that the actual mortality rate is significantly lower due to only those showing more severe symptoms being tested. South Korea has been doing more widespread / statistically significant testing than other countries and their calculated rate when including less severe cases? Approximately 1% (and again with most actual deaths among the elderly population).

Finally, and what almost certainly what will prove most statistically significant for the US is how seasonal the virus ends up being. While still bit too early to tell... if you consider it blowing up in China around December, and the growth it's seen through February... the timing of the outbreak itself could be reason to be guardedly optimistic it very well could be winding down (at least for us until fall) shortly. Coronaviruses often (though not always) do prove seasonal just as most flu strains, and again, thus far it models fairly well with typical flu seasonality.

flu-peak-activity-updated.jpg
flu-peak-activity-updated.jpg (30.95 KiB) Viewed 1571 times


As some of you are aware, my wife's a doc and I had to shake my head up and down at what we heard another doc say recently... had this broken out before the age of the internet / social media-induced panic we'd likely just be talking about how severe the generic "flu season" would be impacting the elderly this year.

As relates to those under the age of 50 who are generally healthy...

89306628_10221962250260832_8430757898509877248_n.jpg
89306628_10221962250260832_8430757898509877248_n.jpg (35.24 KiB) Viewed 1571 times
Last edited by big bend gyrene on March 12th, 2020, 4:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Contracting the Coronavirus

Postby big bend gyrene » March 12th, 2020, 1:41 pm

As for reports that surely will hit on SOME younger than 50 contracting and dying from the virus, it will happen BUT for that matter also DOES happen each year with other flu and other coronaviruses. For that matter, haven't looked up the numbers yet but I bet the standard flu is proving MORE deadly this year than the coronavirus for those between infancy and age 10.

Had a classmate die of flu-related pneumonia when I was in college. Sadly, it DOES happen. But think we're the first generation that's let a virus that is NOT statistically impacting children or many adults in their prime working years tank markets, damage businesses, and paralyze HEALTHY citizens with totally out-of-proportion fear.
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Re: Contracting the Coronavirus

Postby Juan » March 12th, 2020, 2:34 pm

Good luck! Would you mind willing me your fishing tackle? :-D
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Re: Contracting the Coronavirus

Postby ugadawg » March 12th, 2020, 5:21 pm

I think a lot of the concern for this has to do with the fact that the flu is already going around, and now this is added to it. If you catch Covid-19, will you not die.... at least its not statistically likely unless you are old. But if it spreads around and puts older people in the hospital, then those hospital resources aren't available for other illnesses, and that is where you will see people in the situation like we are seeing in Italy right now.

When I originally heard about the closures of schools and colleges and whatnot I thought it was overkill / hystereia, but once I thought about how many ventilators are at our local hospital and how few patients it would take to occupy all of them, I kinda changed my mind a bit.
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Re: Contracting the Coronavirus

Postby geofish » March 12th, 2020, 10:13 pm

Also relevant is that zero percent of the US population has been exposed to this virus before, so it's gonna spread pretty easily through our communities. We can all help slow it down by taking extra care washing our hands.
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Re: Contracting the Coronavirus

Postby doomtrpr_z71 » March 12th, 2020, 11:30 pm

It's completely bonkers, my grandparents lived through the depression and in 2020 colleges have cancelled classes in person for a couple of weeks for an uncommon cold, it's just mind blowing to me. College kids ain't gonna stay at home if you cancel classes. On the bright side I hope I'm gonna be told to telework for the near future and I have a good 4g signal in steinhatchee.
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