Covid at JR's

[Salty Gator]

I think we have different opinions on the virus.

Ya think?

Sorry to derail, do you have any stainless bayou classic fryers?

[Gulf Coast]

Not right now,maybe some on tmrw truck.

[GaryDroze]

Steve,
I got tested last month at Bragg Stadium. Process was a breeze then. Short wait, great organization by National Guard folks. A lot smoother than long car lines on Mahan. As a teacher/coach, even with social distancing and online meetings, I'm around groups of youth a fair amount over the summer, thus I will likely get tested every 3-4 weeks, so I'll know to totally isolate if I test positive (don't want to pass it to kids' grandparents). Hope you are well!

For now, I'm sacrificing in the name of public safety by kayak fishing remote tidal creeks at every opportunity. BTW, Steve: creeks nearer the lighthouse are less stained right now, and salinity is gradually rising even in the creeks closer to Aucilla. Around Palmetto Island still stained, but the trout are there!

[Gulf Coast]

So Gary, are you going to test every 3-4 weeks til the virus is gone ? I understand the why, just curious.

[GaryDroze]

Great question!

I will test every 3-4 weeks because of my job, but I do not expect the virus to go away. Will stop testing when a vaccine is approved. The only reason I will test so often is because I have a job in which self-isolation could prevent major spread.

Once a vaccine is available, I will get that shot every year. Just like I do for annual flu vaccines, which is an ethical responsibility for teachers and coaches. I am pretty confident in my own immune system, but don't want to contribute to spreading it to weaker folks. In school systems, infections spread like wildfire among unvaccinated populations. I respect differing opinions, but as a science teacher, I'm chasing the facts.

[big bend gyrene]

I respect differing opinions, but as a science teacher, I'm chasing the facts.

Glad you caveated your responses earlier with aiming to protect school kids' grandparents, because the "science" doesn't yet paint a picture of this exactly being the black plague for anyone otherwise healthy.

Guessing you already know the statistics, but for others who might not, for those under the age of 25 the death rate is at 0.00. Last I dug into the data (running a medical practice and being married to a physician, we too both appreciate "scientific data") not a single person in Florida under 25 has died.

And until you get to age 50, the very few in Florida who have died had multiple comorbidities along the lines of: morbid obesity, diabetes, late stage renal failure, stage 4 cancer, etc. Seriously, when I read descriptions of those Floridians under the age of 50 who died, it felt like I was reading obituaries BEFORE even taking the covid into account... in other words, the covid was the straw that broke the quite-already weakened camel's back.

And even for those into their 80s, existing comorbidities closely correlate with whether the disease is fatal. Pulled this data DIRECTLY from New York City's data site when the city was nearing their peak. As you can see, for the disease to be fatal it really does GREATLY matter whether one has other health issues or not.

Gary, none of this is to pick a fight with you... protecting kids' grandparents is a completely sensible and morally admirable thing to do. Again, just want to point out to others the "scientific data" doesn't paint this to be a massive cause of panic for most folks. If you're older AND / OR have numerous serious comorbidities, than taking all precautionary steps possible makes sense.

ALL of the above shared, vaccine could be years in the making / may never exist (one never was finished for the 1st SARS though it too was given expedited efforts), and while masks and social distancing may slow spread until a vaccine is formulated, contrary to what many might believe it may not end up being the wisest path to drag out spread for too long... places hit hardest actually burn out the fastest thanks to herd immunity being developed. Drag things out too long and you avoid the herd immunity from being able to nip the virus in the bud (even if momentary -- not known how long at moment how long developed immunity lasts).

[geofish]

I hope we all please take all the precautionary steps not just for ourselves, but for each other and for the community, especially for those most vulnerable.

[FlyrodC]

Two 17 year olds have died from "the Corvid" in Florida. I know that they're the exception, not the rule. A couple hundred thousand will die from "the Corvid" this year and most of them will be elderly, will die alone and will be sorely missed by their families. Doing what you can to keep from getting it and spreading it seems to me like a reasonable goal. My sister had it for 16 days and my friend's brother had it for 2.5 days. Different people react, differently.

I'm hoping and trying not to get "the Corvid". And by the way, "the Corvid" is how a mountain boy up here in Montana described it, as in, "we ain't got none of the Corvid up here". And where he lives, he's right, I just think it's a funny way of describing it.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/20 ... -accounts/

Hope all you southern boys stay healthy and leave a few fish in the water for my return in November!

[big bend gyrene]

Two 17 year olds have died from "the Corvid" in Florida. I know that they're the exception, not the rule. A couple hundred thousand will die from "the Corvid" this year and most of them will be elderly, will die alone and will be sorely missed by their families. Doing what you can to keep from getting it and spreading it seems to me like a reasonable goal.

Appreciate you sharing it's the exception and not the norm. Florida and nation-wide data speaks solidly on the issue, and based on the linked article would bet a fair amount of money that comorbidities quite sadly came into play with both cases.

It's easy to say "we should do all we can do" to protect the aged who are already sick with comorbidities (see the NYC data for just how strong the correlation is), but what does "all we can" mean? After all, never leaving one's home is the ultimate "do all we can do."

Should children stay out of school for years to come if a vaccine doesn't pan out, despite national numbers running at 0.00 fatality risk for them? Should their sports be cancelled, should they not be allowed to be in bands, should play dates be against the law with Leon County handing out financial fines for kids getting together? OR should those who are older and sick take extreme precautions to protect themselves while the general public under retirement age who are otherwise healthy be allowed to make decisions on resuming relatively normal lives, and be allowed to decide what personal risks to take? Let me make clear I DON'T think there are any super easy answers.

Should also make clear I'm OVER the age of 50, and though I think I'm in pretty fair health I am getting old enough that I'm learning each year I'm a little less bullet-proof than I used to be. Like it or not, we all ARE GOING TO DIE from something and it just feels a bit wrong to me that we're not only keeping kids from living normal lives when they're at such low risk, but we're also saddling them with future debt with all the "stimulus" efforts that the feds keep pumping out to alleviate the damage inflicted to the economy by protective closures / measures. Us older folks who are approaching the twilight of our lives and careers don't seem to be thinking twice about what we're doing in multiple ways to the young right now.

And none of the above is even speaking to the issue, again, of developing herd immunity which I think IS a factor worth consideration. Early on some in the scientific community were actually advocating purposefully halting protective measures at given points in order to continue guiding the public towards herd immunity while at the same time avoiding overrunning the hospital systems.

Anyone here thinks that "data" points to crystal clear right / wrong measures to take, you're doing better than the the World Health Organization, the CDC, and the executive branch to date... just saying...

[J Holden]

Isn't going to change anything for me. JR needs our business now more than ever with all this going on.

Some people need to get a grip. It ain't the black plague. If it's been a few days and you aren't showing signs, you need to dial back the hypochondriac and get on with your life.

[FlyrodC]

Big Bend Gyrene, a good and reasonable post. My opinion is that herd immunity (and it may be the ultimate result/resolve) is going to require that 60-70% of the population get Covid and even at a death rate of 1% that's 2,000,000 people dead. For the short term I'm hopeful that with the use of masks and social distancing we can delay infections as much as possible. Reason for that is that I do expect a vaccine by next spring. If ~300,000 die at the current rate and a vaccine is made, we could save innumerable people's lives and protect a very large number from the suffering and after effects of Covid.

I have little doubt that there will be a vaccine. The foremost US drug companies and scientists are working at it and will make a ton of dough if successful. In a capitalist society, I think a vaccine is very likely to emerge. We are lucky to be in one. Competition makes a vaccine more likely than coercion.

Lastly, I've been in JR's a couple of times for beer and wouldn't hesitate to go in there now. However, I'd wear a mask and gloves for the time being.

Hope the Corvid continues to mostly avoid the Big Bend counties!

[Salty Gator]

I respect differing opinions, but as a science teacher, I'm chasing the facts.

Glad you caveated your responses earlier with aiming to protect school kids' grandparents, because the "science" doesn't yet paint a picture of this exactly being the black plague for anyone otherwise healthy.

Guessing you already know the statistics, but for others who might not, for those under the age of 25 the death rate is at 0.00. Last I dug into the data (running a medical practice and being married to a physician, we too both appreciate "scientific data") not a single person in Florida under 25 has died.

And until you get to age 50, the very few in Florida who have died had multiple comorbidities along the lines of: morbid obesity, diabetes, late stage renal failure, stage 4 cancer, etc. Seriously, when I read descriptions of those Floridians under the age of 50 who died, it felt like I was reading obituaries BEFORE even taking the covid into account... in other words, the covid was the straw that broke the quite-already weakened camel's back.

And even for those into their 80s, existing comorbidities closely correlate with whether the disease is fatal. Pulled this data DIRECTLY from New York City's data site when the city was nearing their peak. As you can see, for the disease to be fatal it really does GREATLY matter whether one has other health issues or not.

New York City Data.jpg

Gary, none of this is to pick a fight with you... protecting kids' grandparents is a completely sensible and morally admirable thing to do. Again, just want to point out to others the "scientific data" doesn't paint this to be a massive cause of panic for most folks. If you're older AND / OR have numerous serious comorbidities, than taking all precautionary steps possible makes sense.

ALL of the above shared, vaccine could be years in the making / may never exist (one never was finished for the 1st SARS though it too was given expedited efforts), and while masks and social distancing may slow spread until a vaccine is formulated, contrary to what many might believe it may not end up being the wisest path to drag out spread for too long... places hit hardest actually burn out the fastest thanks to herd immunity being developed. Drag things out too long and you avoid the herd immunity from being able to nip the virus in the bud (even if momentary -- not known how long at moment how long developed immunity lasts).

Im not sure about you, but I think the worry for most of us is infecting an older family member. Not getting it ourselves. I’d feel awful if I was asymptotic and got my mom or in-laws sick ( or someone elderly that you love)

[Steve Stinson]

That's exactly my biggest concern. My 80 yr old Mom lives in a house on the same property as ours.

[big bend gyrene]

Salty Gator and Steve, my Mom who I love DEARLY is still living, approaching her mid-80s, so I'm right there with y'all on the concern for a family member... but she also would be the first to say she would prefer her grandchildren not be robbed of normal childhood experiences (and saddled with debt) for her sake. Accordingly she's quarantined as effectively as anyone I know.

For those caring for someone elderly, than by all means personal precautions again make perfect sense... but that's a far cry from some of the draconian measures being pushed by some as if the virus will be miraculously defeated with cloth masks and one-way lanes at Wally World.

To FishwithChris's point about "unfortunate, but it's going to happen" the math is worth addressing. TLH already has 1 in 500 with confirmed positive tests and that's NOT including those asymptomatic or so lightly affected they're not seeking testing. The actual number infected in TLH? 1 in 250, 1 in a 100, or maybe even higher. I only share that to say that what happened at JR's isnt any surprise at all.

[big bend gyrene]

And Steve, hope you saw the NYC data... being old isn't a death sentence nearly as much as being old AND already sick is. The death rate is just so much more dramatic with the elderly as they, naturally, tend to suffer from other aging related diseases.

Pray your Mom is well, and stays well!