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AND IT BEGGINS
Posted: May 18th, 2009, 9:04 am
by wevans
Discussion
A pretty wet week is on tap for much of the Florida Peninsula as the combination of a frontal system pushing south and an upper level low pressure system now over eastern Cuba, which will develop a surface low pressure system either near the Florida Straits or in the southeast Gulf of Mexico will combine to produce very heavy rainfall amounts across Florida this week. This surface low pressure system will be monitored very closely for tropical development.
All of the computer forecast guidance do develop an area of low pressure, however, the strength of the low varies from model to model. The GFS model is the weakest and the Canadian model is the strongest. The European model is even stronger than the GFS model in low pressure strength. Currently, environmental conditions remain unfavorable for development as there is 20 to 30 knots of shear over this system. These environmental conditions are still forecast to become more favorable as we head towards the middle of the week and remain that way through the end of the week.
Looking over the model forecast tracks of the low pressure system, the GFS model seems to have a too far east track and also the surface and mid-level features do not match up well to the other model solutions for the end of this week into this weekend. I also question on how fast this low pressure system will track as the European and Canadian models may be too quick with the storm progress as it is detached from the westerlies which would lead to a slower motion. So, as of this morning, I am going with an average between the European and Canadian models and also I am taking in account what I forecast yesterday.
So, my thinking is that we will have surface low pressure development near the Florida Straits sometime tonight or at the latest Tuesday morning. After that, I think that the low pressure system will track very near or over south Florida by later Tuesday and then emerge into the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday morning. From Wednesday into this weekend, this low pressure system will organize as it tracks northwestward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. I do think that this system has a pretty decent chance for sub-tropical or tropical development and the best chance for this to happen will be while it is in the Gulf of Mexico during the Wednesday to Saturday timeframe. And yes, I do think it has a decent shot of being named. Ultimately, this system will end up tracking into the northern Gulf Coast late this weekend as potentially a sub-tropical or tropical storm.
Bottom line is that residents and vacationers across the Florida Peninsula are in store for a lot of much needed rain this week. Take a look at the 5 day forecast precipitation map by clicking here. That heavy rain threat should shift into the northern Gulf states by the end of this week as that low pressure system heads that way. Non-tropical or tropical, this storm system will be moisture packed.
Re: AND IT BEGGINS
Posted: May 18th, 2009, 10:24 am
by birddog
Dammit!
Re: AND IT BEGGINS
Posted: May 18th, 2009, 10:56 am
by FishWithChris
guess it's time to break down, clean up, re-lube and re-spool
Re: AND IT BEGGINS
Posted: May 18th, 2009, 11:12 am
by Tom Keels
It's because I have a week off starting Friday.
Re: AND IT BEGGINS
Posted: May 18th, 2009, 11:19 am
by wevans
Re: AND IT BEGGINS
Posted: May 18th, 2009, 2:38 pm
by redman1981
LOOKS LIKE THE TRIP TO CAPE SAND BLAS THIS WEEKEND HAS GONE TO CRAP!!!!!
Re: AND IT BEGGINS
Posted: May 18th, 2009, 3:27 pm
by big bend gyrene
Tom, it's not your bad karma alone... throw mine in there too. Only two trips out year-to-date and I finally got the green light from La Jefa to sneak a couple of trips in this coming weekend. And the tides looked so darn good too...
If it proves true, DOUBLE DAMMMIT!
Re: AND IT BEGGINS
Posted: May 18th, 2009, 3:46 pm
by rocket
Wevans, what weather site did you get that info?? I couldn't find it on Crown Weather Services.
Re: AND IT BEGGINS
Posted: May 18th, 2009, 4:22 pm
by Sir reel
here is what Emergency management is putting out:
A cold front pushing through central Florida this afternoon will stall across south Florida on Tuesday in response to an upper level circulation that will strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Widespread showers and thunderstorms today are providing beneficial rains along with a significant amount of lightning strikes throughout the Florida peninsula. A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon for areas south of the Interstate 4 corridor, with damaging wind gusts and hail being the primary threats along with frequent lightning strikes and heavy downpours.
Meanwhile, tropical moisture in association with a mid-level circulation currently moving northward towards the central and western Bahamas will be drawn into the Florida peninsula on Tuesday. This influx of additional moisture in conjunction with the upper level circulation and stalled frontal boundary in the region will result in widespread heavy downpours continuing into Tuesday and potentially Wednesday. South Florida and the Treasure coast should receive widespread 2-4” totals with locally heavier amounts upwards of 5” on Tuesday in addition to downpours that occur this afternoon and tonight ahead of the stalling frontal boundary. While much of this rainfall will be beneficial in areas that are experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions, urban and localized flooding will be possible tomorrow in this region.
Computer models are in general agreement that a broad low pressure center will form near or over the Florida peninsula by late Tuesday, with a northwestward motion during the mid and later portions of this week. Should this low pressure center enter the Gulf of Mexico as expected, there is a small possibility that it could acquire subtropical characteristics before moving onshore along the panhandle coast by Friday or Saturday. The difference in pressure between this complex system and a strong high pressure center that will position itself over the Mid-Atlantic states will increase onshore east and northeasterly winds all along the state’s Atlantic coast. Building surf will create a high risk of rip currents along Florida’s Atlantic beaches along with the potential for coastal flooding and beach erosion during times of high tide on Tuesday and Wednesday. Coastal impacts are possible later this week along the state’s panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature coasts depending on the strength and organization of the forecast low pressure center in the Gulf of Mexico. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will migrate back towards north Florida as the previously stalled front lifts northwestward in tandem with our potential low pressure center.
Link to the 5-day forecast rainfall totals from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif
Re: AND IT BEGGINS
Posted: May 18th, 2009, 5:46 pm
by Eerman
Poo
Re: AND IT BEGGINS
Posted: May 18th, 2009, 7:05 pm
by dolphinatic
rocket wrote:Wevans, what weather site did you get that info?? I couldn't find it on Crown Weather Services.
What's it matter????? It's not like you were gonna go fishing anyways
I saw these guys fishing in Lake Ella today. You know it's bad when you actually consider trying it yourself 'cause it's the closest you'll get for a while
Re: AND IT BEGGINS
Posted: May 19th, 2009, 7:55 am
by wevans
rocket wrote:Wevans, what weather site did you get that info?? I couldn't find it on Crown Weather Services.
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325
Re: AND IT BEGGINS
Posted: May 19th, 2009, 12:24 pm
by rocket
dolphinatic wrote:rocket wrote:Wevans, what weather site did you get that info?? I couldn't find it on Crown Weather Services.
What's it matter????? It's not like you were gonna go fishing anyways
ouch
Re: AND IT BEGGINS
Posted: May 19th, 2009, 12:25 pm
by rocket
I must have the wrong link...thanks Wevans
Re: AND IT BEGGINS
Posted: May 20th, 2009, 9:13 am
by Reel Country
nice site Wevans!
