BigBendFishing.Net

At 3PM CDT, Tropical Storm Ophelia was near 28.9N/79.3W or about 85 miles east of Cape Canaveral, FL. Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph. Present movement is stationary. Minimum pressure was measured at 997 millibars, or 29.44 inches.


Model guidance remains quite divergent this afternoon. Ophelia has made a small counter-clockwise loop during the day, but we see no evidence of any movement out to sea to the northeast, as a number of models had been forecasting. High pressure remains entrenched across the east U.S. Coast, and that high center is forecast to become stronger over the next few days. In such a blocking pattern, tropical cyclones typically move to the west or even southwest. We continue to agree with the GFDL and European models which forecast little movement for the next 48 hours then a slow track to the west or even west-southwest as high pressure strengthens north of Ophelia. Beyond 60-72 hours, we think that Ophelia will begin moving a little more quickly to the west across the Florida Peninsula, emerging into the northeast Gulf early on Sunday. Thereafter, continued acceleration to the west-northwest is indicated. Second landfall could occur anywhere from southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Needless to say, with such model divergence, our confidence in the long-range track of Ophelia is low.

SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
OPHELIA TO THE EAST AND THE STOUT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
AS THIS RIDGE WEAKENS...AND IF OPHELIA MOVES FURTHER AWAY...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA.