Economy

Post by **Redbelly** » August 15th, 2007, 7:03 pm

Anybody following the credit and banking news? Do you think one should be prepared for a severe slow down in the economy?

Housing is in an obvious meltdown.
Credit (cash flow), is being denied, realestate lawyers are getting bad checks, mortgages are being canceled at the last minute.

Discussion?

Post by **mjsigns** » August 15th, 2007, 7:12 pm

Boat for sale...

Cash offers only...

Post by **bman** » August 15th, 2007, 7:20 pm

Thankfully our economy in Tallahassee is somewhat insulated.

Government and Education are our two primary industries.
Not too long ago- Publix was our largest private employer.

Regarding Credit and lending...
I have had no problems getting people financed for a home.
I have told some people they need to get their financial house in order first.
Honest ethical Realtors have been telling people that for years.

People are still moving, Buying homes and selling homes.

This could be the best time to buy a house in Tallahassee and the nearby area for over 6 years.

I'm thankful that I live here and not in Miami, NYC or LA

Plus we have FISH!!

Post by **Redbelly** » August 15th, 2007, 8:12 pm

bman I don't think Tally is going to be so insulated from the storm that's brewing.

Post by **T Smith** » August 15th, 2007, 8:13 pm

I don't know what to think. I was just about to invest in bonds to diversify my Retirement investments and then China starts with their economic threats. It scares me having to depend on investments for retirement. If the whole thing tanks when I'm about to retire I'm screwed.

Post by **Chalk** » August 15th, 2007, 8:30 pm

Buy on fear and sell on greed

Wife is closing on condo's like crazy, 200 plus in the next 30 days, min $533K

Post by **Jumptrout51** » August 15th, 2007, 8:51 pm

Chicken feed.....

Heat and Air is where it's at.

Cool in the Summer,Warm in the winter.

Post by **Chalk** » August 15th, 2007, 9:03 pm

Jumptrout51 wrote:Chicken feed...

That's your fishing winnings right?

Post by **Redbelly** » August 15th, 2007, 9:04 pm

Chalk wrote:Buy on fear and sell on greed

Wife is closing on condo's like crazy, 200 plus in the next 30 days, min $533K

She is selling 200 plus units herself, @$533 each?? Man, if so you can retire and are gonna be fishing everyday!!

Post by **Jumptrout51** » August 15th, 2007, 9:19 pm

At realtors commissions that is only 6 million $.

Post by **Barhopr** » August 15th, 2007, 9:46 pm

investors and speculators are the ones who are going to the wood shed, along with developers who would not or did not see it coming. John Q public who are looking for a home to live in are gonna be OK, if they didn't go crazy trying to get in the best neighborhood by getting into ARM/interest only loan.

At least in my area, if you bought land before March of '05, you'll be OK. If you bought land from then till Dec. '05 you may sit on it a few years. Prices in this area will go back to '04 early '05 prices before any of it starts to move again.
Again, the people who bought land for personel enjoyment with little care about short term gain are OK.

my .03

Post by **BAD BEHAVIOR** » August 15th, 2007, 11:22 pm

As a small businessman, I see the economic variations in the small towns we do business in. Beginning with the lower income bracket of consumers, We are seeing a slight decrease in their business, but as many of them are on government induced fixed incomes and many of them do little travel(therefore energy price volatility doesn't have as profound an effect), their spending habits havent changed much. On to the middle class (cash constrained credit worthy consumer), who is our stongest customer base in retail, we have experienced a sharp decrease in sales. We do not see near as many customers utilizing our "easy credit " options and our core sale amount of $2500 to $4000 has slowed considerably. What we are experiencing in middle retail is more people seeking our interest free options and paying cash. Our upper level customer base which makes up about 20% of our base still are shopping and buying in mostly in cash, although we have seen a small influx in the amount of this class who are utilizing our buy now pay later options.

What does this all mean to the everyday citizen? All in all through our research, the american consumer is in debt up to his eyeballs. Many people have utilized variable rate mortgages and the interest rates are catching up. what extra capitol most people have are going to increased energy costs as well as skyrocketing childcare, healthcare, and daily living expenses. Therefore, as a whole , the american public is shying away form long term purchases and have the mindset to get out of debt as soon as possible. From Baby Boomers to Gen Y'ers, we see a huge swing towards debt eradication and this causes the slowdowns in new spending. People are doing a lot more fixing than buying. Many things that should be replaced are being repaired. Our service logs are staying full , while we have open spaces on our delivery books. Its normally the other way around.

In my opinion, like Barhopr said, we will see things worse before they get better. Real Estate prices will fall and many people will be held liable for fast , rash purchases. The way our always volatile economy has drifted, I believe the people who have made good solid decisions in their credit and have purchased for the long haul will be able to hold out and see a decent return on their investments. I feel the stock market is grossly inflated and will return to lower normal values at some time in the near future. With an election year coming, it is hard to imagine a magic rebound of our fluttering(not necessarily faulting) economy.

What we can do to help......... Continue to live your life. Support your community by shopping local whenever you can. Continue wise spending in moderation and by all means if you cant afford it, dont try to come up with a way to do so. In the next 24 months there will be some super attractive deals across the board. From real estate to retail, corporate America is going to try to entice the consumer. Its already happening. Be smart in your credit decisions and pay cash or short term , interest free finance when possible. Sleep on major credit decisions, because tomorrow may very well bring that better deal. America is a strong Nation that will overcome the current slump, but like it didnt take a day to create this mess, it will take longer than a day to fix it. The solution depends on the American public trusting the American economy and utilizing the many offers that are and will be there. Just my .02!!

fishful_thinkin · Post by **fishful_thinkin** » August 16th, 2007, 12:03 am

Dang BB you sounded like a real bitness man!!

I agree that its gonna get worse before it gets better. Its the circle of the economy.

Post by **Dubble Trubble** » August 16th, 2007, 6:10 am

BAD BEHAVIOR wrote:As a small businessman, I see the economic variations in the small towns we do business in. Beginning with the lower income bracket of consumers, We are seeing a slight decrease in their business, but as many of them are on government induced fixed incomes and many of them do little travel(therefore energy price volatility doesn't have as profound an effect), their spending habits havent changed much. On to the middle class (cash constrained credit worthy consumer), who is our stongest customer base in retail, we have experienced a sharp decrease in sales. We do not see near as many customers utilizing our "easy credit " options and our core sale amount of $2500 to $4000 has slowed considerably. What we are experiencing in middle retail is more people seeking our interest free options and paying cash. Our upper level customer base which makes up about 20% of our base still are shopping and buying in mostly in cash, although we have seen a small influx in the amount of this class who are utilizing our buy now pay later options.

What does this all mean to the everyday citizen? All in all through our research, the american consumer is in debt up to his eyeballs. Many people have utilized variable rate mortgages and the interest rates are catching up. what extra capitol most people have are going to increased energy costs as well as skyrocketing childcare, healthcare, and daily living expenses. Therefore, as a whole , the american public is shying away form long term purchases and have the mindset to get out of debt as soon as possible. From Baby Boomers to Gen Y'ers, we see a huge swing towards debt eradication and this causes the slowdowns in new spending. People are doing a lot more fixing than buying. Many things that should be replaced are being repaired. Our service logs are staying full , while we have open spaces on our delivery books. Its normally the other way around.

In my opinion, like Barhopr said, we will see things worse before they get better. Real Estate prices will fall and many people will be held liable for fast , rash purchases. The way our always volatile economy has drifted, I believe the people who have made good solid decisions in their credit and have purchased for the long haul will be able to hold out and see a decent return on their investments. I feel the stock market is grossly inflated and will return to lower normal values at some time in the near future. With an election year coming, it is hard to imagine a magic rebound of our fluttering(not necessarily faulting) economy.

What we can do to help......... Continue to live your life. Support your community by shopping local whenever you can. Continue wise spending in moderation and by all means if you cant afford it, dont try to come up with a way to do so. In the next 24 months there will be some super attractive deals across the board. From real estate to retail, corporate America is going to try to entice the consumer. Its already happening. Be smart in your credit decisions and pay cash or short term , interest free finance when possible. Sleep on major credit decisions, because tomorrow may very well bring that better deal. America is a strong Nation that will overcome the current slump, but like it didnt take a day to create this mess, it will take longer than a day to fix it. The solution depends on the American public trusting the American economy and utilizing the many offers that are and will be there. Just my .02!!

Yeah, but how is it going to affect the fish biting? THAT is the real question.....

Dubble

Post by **Redbelly** » August 16th, 2007, 7:15 am

The fish economy will remain strong.

Real estate has a few more tough years. Home building will continue to slow. I hope the typical remodeling will pick up, as I am in the cabinet business. I plan to expand my product line into closet systems, wood flooring, and window treatments.

The mortgage market is establishing a new credit scoring system.

I really hope the standard economic models apply to this recession.

I fear we are entering a changed situation due to our manufacturing base being shipped away.
Also it appears the dollar is dieing as the reserve currency.. Our .gov deficit spending and the national credit bubble are about to come home to roost.

Do you understand our fiat money and the fractional banking system? Study up on it.