BPS/Cabelas Merger and Retail Sales Update

[silverking]

Will ALL Retailers Fail?
By Jim Shepherd, Publisher
The Fishing Wire
April 5, 2017

Last week, I heard some scary advice from a bankruptcy attorney for retailers: "find another line of work."

Hugh Ray of McCool Smith wasn't joking.

The lineup of failed companies in bricks-and-mortar retailing looks like a lineup of former blue-chippers who have "lost a step" in sports parlance.

Even discounters aren't being spared. Payless Shoes, I'm told, will file for Chapter 11 protection "any day". That's after closing 1,000 stores.

Sears Holding Corporation has (finally) admitted that it is "essentially no longer a going concern" despite belt tightening and the closure of 150 locations. Radio Shack owner General Wireless Operations is already in bankruptcy, as is HHGregg. Others, from J.Crew to Ascena (the company that owns Ann Taylor and Ann Taylor Lofts) have suffered two mortal wounds: dropping sales and/or plummeting share price.

Add in the problems for Macy's, Staples, Office Depot, Kohls, and CVS, and itseems there will be plenty of storefronts available in 2017 -especially across rural America. Small-town stores are normally the first casualties.

Outdoor retailer Gander Mountain has already sought bankruptcy protection. It's not the only outdoor group teetering on the edge today.

Online retailers like Amazon are draining traditional storefront operations dry.

Only those destination-type retailers are hanging tough - and their operations aren't thriving, despite what you might hear.

Last week, I was writing an undated obituary for the Bass Pro Shop/Cabela's deal- until a last minute decision by Georgia-based Synovus Financial Corporation to buy the Cabela's credit-card business seems to have pulled the deal out of the proverbial fire.

Most people forget the mega-merger of outdoor retailers Bass Pro Shops and Cabela's was really an intertwined two-part sale: BPS would take the retail business, and Capital One would buy the credit card business.

The second part of the deal ran into trouble because of money-laundering allegations (and an ongoing investigation) at Capital One. Their timetable had slipped to the point the deal seemed in serious trouble.

Now Georgia-based Synovus Financial Corporation has stepped in to buy the credit card portion. It's one of those deals I'd like to make: Synovus buys the Cabela's credit card business, then turns around and re-sells it to Capital One. That avoids a more in-depth review of the deal by regulators.

In exchange, Synovus keeps around $1 billion (yes, billion) in deposits held by the Cabela's bank - and grows from a $30 billion dollar bank to a $31 billon dollar depository- three plus percent growth on a single business turn is nothing to sneeze at.

At that point, Johnny Morris and BPS takes over Cabela's -and the $3.6 billion in business Cabela's generated last year. If/when that happens, count on a brief period of stability, followed by the inevitable "combination of operational areas" - and another glut of available retail space.

Unfortunately, there are no white knights riding to the rescue of independent retailers.

They're under nearly unbearable price pressures, and facing the realization consumers are coming to them for their expertise- then using their newfound knowledge to search for the best price- usually online.

Last weekend, I watched a shopper question a knowledgeable salesperson about compound bows. The salesperson was both courteous and knowledgeable, answering the shopper's questions while showing the different bow sight options on demo mounts.

After several minutes of questions, the shopper and the salesperson decided a particular three-pin sight would be the best choice for this customer.

Instead of asking the price, the customer whipped out his smartphone, took a picture of a packaged sight, thanked the salesman, and left. I was flabbergasted.

The salesman shrugged and explained: "happens pretty often. We have the knowledge, but not the online price."

Curious about the price difference, I went online -at the counter- to see how cheaply I could find that particular bow sight online.

The difference? Seven bucks- not including shipping ($3.95).

For less than three bucks, the "smart" shopper essentially helping put their go-to source for help and expert advice out of business.

This exchange summarizes where outdoor retailers, regardless of their size, find themselves. I've seen it happen before.

As a beginning photographer, most of my early knowledge came from local camera stores. Local shooters freely shared their experiences and expertise. Today are very few of camera stores. Instead, innumerable online videos from online sellers quickly help me through any technical issue I have with my digital gear.

The same's true for a lot of the technical aspects of the outdoors. But there's still no substitute for "local knowledge" in the outdoors. What works in Bozeman usually doesn't apply in Birmingham.

As a business observer, it's tough to watch people who love their business and readily share that "local knowledge" increasingly forced to "find another line of work".

But I've seen it happen frequently enough to recognize the symptoms.

Unfortunately, recognizing symptoms does nothing to slow the inevitable march of progress. Consumers decide what businesses succeed.

[Can'tCatchAnything]

That anecdote about that shopper buying the compound bow pretty much sums up my entire generation. I have quite a few friends that'll do that exact thing.

I'm all for try before you buy, but I usually try and buy local when I've made a choice.

[Danibeth]

I'll do the same thing, though I'll usually ask if they will match prices online first. A few places have said sure but not many. I recently had an experience with Lowes where their marked price was $15 more than where I could get it online. I'm happy to pay a couple bucks more to have something NOW but $15 is a lot more than I'm willing to pay if it's not something I need right away.

[Salty Gator]

What you buy online isn't always exactly the same as what you would buy in the store. Lots of counterfeit merch out there. Anything from fishing line to heartworm prevention for your dog. That packaging looks identical, but often times what is inside is counterfeit

[homboyfsu]

Get use to it. Our world we are living in is changing. We got them smart phones that can do just about anything. We ask for it and we got it. We can buy everything online. No use in going to a local retail store. Just as the job market changed in 2008 the retail is going to change. With all this there are going to be some consequences. What they are we don't know all of them right now. One that come to my mind is what I am doing right now sitting.

[Salty Gator]

That anecdote about that shopper buying the compound bow pretty much sums up my entire generation. I have quite a few friends that'll do that exact thing.

I'm all for try before you buy, but I usually try and buy local when I've made a choice.

I can't believe someone would do that. Waste someone else's time with no intention to buy, then slap the guy in the face by taking a pic. How do they think the guy that helped gets paid? Or I guess they just don't care, it's all about me me me. Really sad

[guthooked]

For a long time they have referred to Best Buy as "Amazon's Showroom"