Rogue Wave Blamed for Dennis Surge

[Flats Rascal]

Rogue wave blamed for Dennis surge
Scientists: Wave started near Naples

By Diane Hirth
DEMOCRAT SENIOR WRITER



A rogue wave traveling hundreds of miles was partly responsible for a severe storm surge that rose from Apalachee Bay in the summer of 2005 during Hurricane Dennis.

Dennis' 10 to 12-foot storm surge - higher than the 3 to 5 feet expected - soaked and slapped apart businesses and homes in Franklin, Wakulla and Taylor counties on July 10, 2005.

Its surprising strength has been traced back by Florida State University scientists to a "trapped wave" that originated as far away as the southwest Florida coast near Naples.

It's a phenomenon that surfers and scientists have been aware of for some time: how big waves can be pumped by faraway winds and waves. But modern computers can decipher the impacts more precisely.

"The physics of it has been well understood, but applying the idea that a hurricane can make a small storm surge near Naples come to St. Marks wasn't appreciated," said FSU climatologist James O'Brien. "It's an old story but with the better data."

The lesson to be learned, according to FSU researchers with the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's tropical prediction center at the National Hurricane Center, is to use a larger expanse of the Gulf of Mexico when predicting future storm surges.

FSU did its experiments using computer storm-modeling programs it already had, but cast the net wider than what the National Hurricane Center had used in terms of winds affecting storm surge.

A semicircle drawn through the Gulf of Mexico from Clearwater to Pensacola formerly defined the prediction area; now the area studied for potential storm-surge effects will extend from Key West to the middle of the Gulf and all the way to New Orleans.

Tides and tidal waves move counterclockwise in the Gulf, but bump up against a shelf in the waters off Apalachicola, which contributes to the storm-surge vulnerability of coastal areas to the east.

"There's no question but there will be a next time," said O'Brien, COAPS director emeritus. However, "In the future, whether we're talking about Corpus Christi, Texas, or St. Marks, Fla., they're going to get better forecast of storm surge."

Collaborating with O'Brien on the storm-surge research were FSU scientists Steven Morey, Mark Bourassa and Dmitry Dukhovskoy and Stephen Baig of NOAA. Their work was published in the Oct. 4 issue of Geophysical Research Letters.

[RHTFISH]

Sure got my HIDEOUT at Anky!

I assumed surge came from west side of storm.

Turned into a long hot summer fighting with insurance company...
finally resorted to appeal to state insurance commish and things turned
around abruptly. ...several weeks of aggravation very unnecessary!

Read the report recently of a wave that traveled nearly 11500 miles
from the artic and broke apart a glacier near the south pole.

[Dubble Trubble]

I can remember making a comment to a buddy of mine one day about how a huge barge hardly made any wake. His comment was "Maybe not here, but 20 miles away he would create a rogue wave".

Strange stuff that water....


Hooked