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http://www.floridatoday.com/article/201 ... -oil-spill

Eastcoasters should be worried if the slick gets to the gulf current. Bye-bye Keys reefs.

I saw one estimate of 20,000 barrels/ day that are still leaking, which is 19,000 over BP's initial estimate.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:27 PM GMT on April 30, 2010

The oil slick from the ruptured well due to the April 20 explosion and sinking of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon has reached the Louisiana coast near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Strong southeasterly winds blowing at 20 - 25 knots will continue through Sunday, which will push a large amount of oil onto most of the eastern Louisiana coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River northwards to the Mississippi border. It is likely that the Mississippi coast will see the arrival of oil by Saturday night or Sunday. On Monday, the winds shift to southwesterly, but weaken. The wind shift will allow oil to move eastwards towards Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but at just 1 mph or so. The winds remain southwesterly through Tuesday, which should allow the oil to reach Alabama by Monday and possibly the extreme western Florida Panhandle by Tuesday. On Tuesday night, a cold front is expected to move over the Gulf of Mexico, bringing offshore northwesterly winds. These offshore winds will last for two days and blow the oil slick 5 - 10 miles offshore. High pressure is expected to build in late next week, bringing relatively light offshore winds that should cause little transport of the oil spill for the final portion of next week.

Oil a long-range threat to southwest and southeast Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas

The surface ocean currents that transport the oil are driven by the wind and by the large scale ocean current structure of the Gulf of Mexico. The latest surface ocean current forecast (Figure 3) from NOAA's RTOFS model shows a complicated current structure along the Gulf Coast over the next seven days. By Tuesday night, when the winds shift to northwesterly (offshore), the forecast calls for surface currents of about 1 m/s (roughly 2 mph) to transport oil to the southeast from the site of the blowout. There is a danger that the oil thus transported could make it all the way south to the Loop Current, since offshore winds are now expected to last Tuesday through Friday of next week. The warm Loop Current enters the Gulf from the south and loops around to the southeast to exit through the Florida Keys, where it becomes the Gulf Stream. Oil caught in the Loop Current would move relatively rapidly at 2 - 4 mph to the southeast and then eastwards through the Keys, potentially fouling beaches in the Keys, northwest Cuba, the southwest and southeast coasts of Florida, and the western Bahamas. I don't think the spill will be able to make it into the Loop Current next week, since it has to travel about 120 miles south-southeast from the blowout location to reach the Loop Current. The duration and strength of next week's offshore winds are probably capable of pushing the oil slick only half way to the Loop Current. However, that may be close enough so that the oil will reach the Loop Current the following week, unless strong onshore winds develop again. The long range wind forecast is too uncertain to put odds on the possibilities at this point. If the oil keeps spewing from the ocean floor for many months, though, eventually a wind pattern will set up that will take the oil into the Loop Current. This would most likely happen if a persistent trough of low pressure settles over the East Coast in May, or if a tropical storm makes landfall along the Florida Panhandle this summer. Any oil that does make it into the Loop Current will suffer significant dispersion before it makes landfall in Cuba, Florida, or the Bahamas, and far less oil will foul these shores compared to what the Louisiana coast is experiencing this weekend.

Harmsway's link didn't work when I tried it but I didn't give up and am pretty sure that this is it...
http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/bo ... Mexico.pdf

With all of us understandably alarmed, it did make me pause and wonder if we might not be predicting the end of life as we know it just a wee bit prematurely... not saying I'm happy or unconcerned, but very interesting to learn that some severe hits have been experienced before in the gulf coast and with one (Ocean 255) much, much closer to the keys.

Crow is hard to swallow, I stood with the conservatives on this issue. Gyrene, I hope you are right.

big bend gyrene wrote:Harmsway's link didn't work when I tried it but I didn't give up and am pretty sure that this is it...
http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/bo ... Mexico.pdf

With all of us understandably alarmed, it did make me pause and wonder if we might not be predicting the end of life as we know it just a wee bit prematurely... not saying I'm happy or unconcerned, but very interesting to learn that some severe hits have been experienced before in the gulf coast and with one (Ocean 255) much, much closer to the keys.

Pretty amazing what Mother N mops up after us.

THINK APOCALYPSE and the dark rider is in Washington.

and I haven't had a beer for a week.

Well I really don't know what Bush did, as he did very little and probably didn't blow up the levee.
And no, you cant make asphalt with solor panels and wind mills. However, BIG OIL has us believing we need to drill off shore when there is much more oil on shore, right in our back yards, not to mention countries too poor for oil exploration who would be glad to let us come drill.
So, I guess the TEA PARTY folks are gonna ask for government intervention just this one time, to help with the BIG SLICK, then go back to demanding less government. Sounds hypocritical doesn't it?

BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates approved Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal's request to mobilize 6,000 National Guard troops in response to a massive oil spill.

Sounds to me like if the government put its' nose where it should be and not where they want it to be,things would be just fine.
Besides that if BP lets the U.S. government get too involved that damn pipe will be open for years to come.
Obama sent the Coast Guard.
Please tell me what good the Coast Guard is going to do other than keep sight seers away.
The commercial and recreational fishermen of the area have done more good by volunteering(and some getting paid) to go out and help any way possible.
And you are correct,Bush did not blow the levee.The dumbass coonassess didn't have sense enough to get on the buses.

I still think as bad as it is, will be and could/might be, we have the historical data (already posted) to look back on and hope that that the years since past disasters - we hope we will come out of this not as bad as we are focasting... http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/bo ... Mexico.pdf

I really hope they get it under control sooner than later but I also think the media dooms day machine is at work with the public- just look at the KFC Double Down, it was supposed to be so bad and so good, yet my buddy says it was so-so------

Jumptrout51 wrote:The dumbass coonassess didn't have sense enough to get on the buses.

AMEN!

Great PR by Mobile 1, the Bobby Jindal ad has a Mobiel 1 Pop up---- clever

If you still think that a rig belongs off of the coast of Florida, you are an absolute moron

CrispyFishin wrote:If you still think that a rig belongs off of the coast of Florida, you are an absolute moron

(by the... there are a bunch in gulf already, but keep that on the down low----)
Guess I'm an absolute moron (and thanks by the way) cause I'd rather not send my son to the other side of the earth so we can have foreign oil - Hope our kids stay safe when they are "requested" to go get it for us.

Maybe you should invest in this. http://www.nikkisponyexpress.com/CartsW ... ggies.html

This may also help... http://www.agrisupply.com/product.asp?pn=28217
Good Luck-
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