Isaac

[APheroes]

Might be a good idea to plan for a Big Bend-"ish" landfall. 3 of the 4 major computer models have it hooking throught the FL straits and skirting the west coast into the big bend.
Will post updates as they become available through work.

[grouperfever]

Time to get lucky.

[mjsigns]

This projection for your viewing pleasure.



(no thanks to stormpulse.com )

[MudDucker]

Batten down the hatches ... cuz here he comes. BTW, what is little line in mid-Mexico?

[mjsigns]

How could Isaac miss us in todays models

[wevans]

It's way to far out to draw any conclusions on it's path or strength! A little jog to the East or West could make a huge difference

[roadtrip]

I am really sick of this sh$#%#$TTTT!

[Rhettley]

Had the time to actually get down to St Marks this morning but a look at the radar convinced me not to waste my gas money. Just plain every day storms followed next week by tropical stuff. Seems my boat has seen a lot more water IN it than under it so far.

[rockyg]

Keep in mind the path of this storm is of real concern to the Big Bend area. It seems that when a hurricane slides just offshore up the entire west coast of Florida it pushes a wall of water in front of it that has no where to go when it hits that place where the land bends hard to the left. That bend is us.

Even a Cat 1 on this potential track can push a ton of water into St. Marks and the surrounding area. (well in advance of the actual storm)

Those with boats and property in the area need to stay tuned and be prepared. I have personally gone down to get my boat and not been able to get there due to rapidly rising water. Twice in the last 30 years. You would think I would have learned the first time.

[zload]

WEVANS is correct i.e. small changes now can result in large track changes a few days from now and this one does not have a well defined center to use as an inital point for the models so they are all over the place (but still pretty consistent generally), BUT once this one settles down with a good initial point for the models to grab onto I would anticipate the new track (probably by 5:00 this afternoon)to be pretty accurate as there does not seem to be any significant atmospheric conditions that will make it do large turns/major changes etc. All the pretty graphs are nice to look at but I always rely on the forecaster's discussion comments to get a feel for how "good" they feel about the forecast. When you start reading things like "I HAVE OPTED TO USE A..." it usually means we're not sure what is going on but when you see this type of thing "HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON..." they feel better about things from a forecast perspective. I have seen them say things along the lines of "there is nothing in the next x hours to make any deviation in the projected path..." when you see that and you are in the cone it is time to fill the tub and batten down the hatches! You can read the discussion comments here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml. I didn't link the actual discussion but the link on this page will be marked "Forecast Discussion #x". It is currently #9.

[bman]

This is by far the most accurate map I have seen...


By the way one of my favorite prognosticators says its going to head east.

[APheroes]

FEMA software indicates your source is incorrect

[mjsigns]

I know this will show up sooner or later....

[wevans]

Looks like the eye is starting to form now!!

[rockyg]

Well......if it's forming an "eye" can we begin to take it seriously now????

While it "might" landfall hundreds of miles away from us early next week........

Go get your boat this weekend and secure your coastal property.

You won't regret it.