Storm Eta

[silverking]

Latest cone from the National Hurricane Center shows center of Tropical Storm Eta coming in around Steinhatchee or Suwannee after midnight on Friday. Not good, especially when every one this season has strengthened significantly right before landfall. Hope it defies the odds this time.

Looks like fishing will be a bust this week with the strong winds. Hope everyone stays safe as this one comes ashore.

[big bend gyrene]

Latest cone from the National Hurricane Center shows center of Tropical Storm Eta coming in around Steinhatchee or Suwannee after midnight on Friday.

True, Silverking, but with the caveat that the tracking models, which have actually been surprisingly tight AND accurate with all the earlier Lousisiana tracks, are FAR from concensus on Eta... tracks from the individual models which are summed together for the National Hurricane "center" track are literally all over the map.

Not saying it isn't heading this way -- only that it's still far from a certainty this far out. Definitely will be keeping a watchful eye on it, though, and imagine after it does some of the forecast zigging and zagging in the gulf it will be much more apparent where it's actually headed midweek.

[FishWithChris]

We were supposed to roll on down to Lake Griffin this weekend for a little family turkey party but that will be put on hold. Looks like we'll be staying put or rolling the boat West instead. As long as she doesn't strengthen and falls apart fast once it hits land, we're golden. I'm fearful that she'll (or he? not sure what the storm is identifying as these days ) just slow down more and pull a Harvey in terms of speed/rain.

Either way, prep now for a possible, as still a few more storms behind it.

[big bend gyrene]

Might should have added for those interested in following the varying tracking models, I highly recommend the "Tropical Tidbits" site.

Here's a link to the site -- https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

Dig around the site a bit and you can even run the individual models and click by specific hour to see where each model places the storm at a specific future time. Very cool site, and not all that difficult to navigate / use once one plays with it a bit.

[silverking]

Thanks for that link, BBG. Much easier to navigate than Mike's WX page.

[Mckayaker]

After seeing forecast for 20 to 25 knot winds and 4 to six foot waves for the entire weekend, made other plans for the weekend. Ended up driving down to refuge to see some monarchs before they are gone. Seas were as smooth as a baby’s bottom as the sun set yesterday evening.


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[silverking]

That looks like a little diaper rash to me.

[MudDucker]

Well, NOAA has moved the track to the west toward Mobile, but their cone of uncertainty extends back to big bend area.

[Bailey]

Here’s the latest track. It seems this one can’t make up its mind.

For those of you that keep your boat down at the coast, are you going to go get it and bring it further inland or ride it out? The current prediction is tropical storm strength (maybe) but they can’t seem to predict this one right at all. My sled is down at Shell Island btw.


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[silverking]

This has been a record storm season and every single one that made landfall has come in stronger than originally predicted. Better to err on the side of caution.

Hoping the weather guessers get it wrong this time and Apalachee Bay doesn't get a huge dump of rain/surge.

[silverking]

Now the latest composite models are mostly showing it coming ashore around Crystal River/Cedar Key and cutting across the state. Subject to change, of course.

[rockyg]

We have had various boats in St. Marks since I was a kid back in the 70's. I remember lots of days we went down and moved or brought a boat home. I also remember several times I/we went down and the water was already over the road and we could not even get to the boat to bring it home.

Moral of the story.......I go early and get the boat out of an abundance of caution and experience.

This storm as of today at 10:00 am looks to be a relatively mild one that will go in well east of us. Being on the west side of the storm is always better.

[Bailey]

We have had various boats in St. Marks since I was a kid back in the 70's. I remember lots of days we went down and moved or brought a boat home. I also remember several times I/we went down and the water was already over the road and we could not even get to the boat to bring it home.

Moral of the story.......I go early and get the boat out of an abundance of caution and experience.

This storm as of today at 10:00 am looks to be a relatively mild one that will go in well east of us. Being on the west side of the storm is always better.

Yes, definitely some storm surge issues down there. Looks like we got lucky.


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[silverking]

Original National Hurricane Center prediction was pretty close. Glad it lost strength and there was no major damage on the coast. Still having an impact on the peninsula and will dump rain but we got lucky on the Big Bend.